THE EXPERT WITNESS: The art of war and economics

By Dr. John F. Sase
with Gerard J. Senick

“There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.”
 – Sun Tzu, (”The Art of War,” sixth century BCE; translated from the Chinese by Lionel Giles, 1910; available as a Project Gutenberg e-book, www.gutenberg.org)

In this month’s column, we will focus on the second part of “The Art of War,” a classic work attributed to the Chinese general and strategist Sun Tzu (aka Master Sun; 544-496 BCE). “The Art of War” is a series of essays that address the economics of waging war through Taoist thought. This ancient tome presents a philosophy of war for managing conflicts and winning battles that has influenced both Asian and Western culture. Generally considered the definitive work on military strategy, “The Art of War” has become a staple of business and management training and has been the subject of legal books and articles on trial negotiations and tactics. It also has been used by political leaders, who have noted Master Sun’s opinions on diplomacy and public administration, among other subjects. For the sake of comparison, we will provide quotations from Sun Tzu and follow them with economic information on our current military situation.
Sun Tzu was not just a philosopher. He had a successful military career and was considered a hero as a general for Helu, the king of Wu. Sun Tzu proved the effectiveness of his theories on the battlefield and wrote “The Art of War” based on his experiences. The book became immediately influential. For example, it is considered invaluable in the unification of the warring states in both China and Japan. In 1772, Father Jean Joseph Marie Amiot, a French Jesuit missionary, translated “The Art of War” from Chinese into French. Subsequently, the French emperor Napoleon used Sun Tze’s writings in his attempt to conquer the rest of Europe by military strategy. In 1905, the British officer Everard Ferguson Calthrop, a language specialist in the Royal Field Artillery, translated “The Art of War” into English. When it was distributed worldwide, the work became recognized as a classic of military strategic thinking. Chinese leader Mao Zedong, who based his theory of guerrilla warfare on Sun Tze’s essays, credited “The Art of War” with helping him to defeat Chiang Kai-shek in 1949. During the Vietnam War, Ho Chi Minh translated the work for the education of his officers, and Vo Nguyen Giap, the general who defeated both American and French forces in Vietnam, credited “The Art of War” with his success. Though American military leaders such as General Douglas MacArthur had studied Sun Tzu’s work, Giap’s victories brought Master Sun’s philosophy back into the consciousness of the current U.S. Armed Forces.
Today, military theorists frequently cite “The Art of War” as a masterpiece of strategy. The Department of the Army, through its Command and General Staff College, cites “The Art of War” as an example of works to be maintained at each individual unit. The U.S. Marine Corps includes Sun Tzu’s book in its Professional Reading Program. Both Generals Norman Schwarzkopf Jr. and Colin Powell practiced Sun Tzu’s principles of deception, speed, and attacking the enemy’s weakness during the Persian Gulf War of the early 1990s.

The Economics of Warfare
Sun Tzu begins “The Art of War” by saying, “In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, as many heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to carry them [500 kilometers], the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver [currently, $15,000 U.S.] per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men.”
Fifteen gran’ don’t buy what it use’ to! In his article “High Costs Weigh on Troop Debate for Afghan War” in the New York Times, Christopher Drew writes, “The rough formula used by the White House, of about $1 million per soldier a year, appears almost constant” (15 November, 2009, www.nytimes.com). As of 9 February 2010, the cost of the Global War on Terrorism incurred by the U.S. has reached almost $1 trillion.
Next, Master Sun states, “When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped.”
In response to this point, let us mention that the action in Afghanistan commenced on 7 October 2001 and the war in Iraq began on 20 March 2003. The focus of the conflict has changed in the past year from Iraq to Afghanistan. However, the Global War on Terrorism continues and has entered its ninth year.
Again, Sun Tzu reminds us, “If the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.”
As of 9 February 2010, the cost of war for the U.S. has been almost $1 Trillion, more than $700 Billion for Iraq and more than $250 Billion for Afghanistan (http://www.costofwar.com/).
Sun Tzu tells us, “Though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays.”
Numerous books and films have explored the rationale behind the rapid entry and commitment of U.S. troops. However, let us look objectively at the timeline and decide for ourselves whether or not we rushed into a protracted event that has extended longer than any other direct U.S. involvement in our nation’s history.
• 11 September 2001: Allegedly, members of Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda organization, headquartered in Afghanistan, planned and committed a series of terrorist attacks on the commercial and military centers in the United States.
• 20 September 2001: President George W. Bush demanded that the Afghan government turn over all resident al-Qaeda members to the United States and close all terrorist training camps in Afghanistan.
• 21 September 2001: The Afghan government refused President Bush’s ultimatum.
• 7 October 2001: The United States began the Global War on Terrorism with its aerial bombing campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
In effect, the decision that has cost American taxpayers $1 Trillion thus far was made in less than a month. In order to put the war into an economic perspective, let us compare it with a big-ticket item. Laura Litvan writes on the financial Web site Bloomberg.com, “Asked whether the cost of a health-care overhaul would be more than $1 trillion over a decade, [Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles] Rangel said, ‘the answer is yes.’ Some Senate Republicans, including Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, say the costs will likely exceed $1.5 trillion” (“House Health-Care Proposal Adds $600 Billion in Taxes, Update 2,” Bloomberg.com, 12 June 2009). So, in contrast to our decision to enter into a decade-long conflict, how long have we deliberated on a plan for Health Care Reform?
Now let’s go back to the quote with which we started this month’s article. Sun Tzu writes, “There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.”
There are many examples in history and literature that address this point. Let us consider a couple of infrequently used illustrations that underscore the preceding assertion. In his article “The Western Front, A World War One Summary” for the War Times Journal, an online magazine that covers military history, Manfred Von Richthofen writes about the fourth year of the First World War. He notes that, by the spring of 1918, the German troops “were quickly tiring from the prolonged effort, as well as giving in to periods of looting. The economic blockade of Germany had cut off many vital supplies and, back home, many people were literally starving. Many German troops were chronically undernourished and, whenever they encountered Allied food stocks, much time was lost as these desperately famished troops gorged themselves” (The War Times Journal, 2003, www.richthofen.com/ww1sum.).
“Things to Come,” an English film directed by William Cameron Menzies (London Films/United Artists, 1936), is considered a classic in the genre of science fiction. A dystopian fantasy that takes place from 1936 to 2036, the film was written for the screen by English author H. G. Wells, who based it on two of his books, the nonfiction title “The Work, Wealth, and Happiness of Mankind” (Doubleday, Doran & Company, 1931) and the novel “The Shape of Things to Come” (Hutchinson & Company, 1933). Writing on the Internet Movie Database (IMDB) Web site, Kevin Steinhauer summarizes the first part of the film: “A global war begins in 1940. This war drags out over many decades until most of the people still alive (mostly those born after the war started) do not even know who started it or why. Nothing is being manufactured at all any more and society has broken down into primitive localized communities. In 1966, a great plague wipes out most of what people are left, but small numbers still survive” (www.imdb.com/title/tt0028358/plotsummary).
“In The Art of War,” Master Sun asserts, “It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on. The skillful soldier does not raise a second levy, neither are his supply-wagons loaded more than twice. Poverty of the State exchequer causes an army to be maintained by contributions from a distance. Contributing to maintain an army at a distance causes the people to be impoverished.... When their substance is drained away, the peasantry will be afflicted by heavy exactions. With this loss of substance and exhaustion of strength, the homes of the people will be stripped bare, and three-tenths of their income will be dissipated; while government expenses for broken chariots, worn-out horses, breast-plates and helmets, bows and arrows, spears and shields, protective mantles, draught-oxen, and heavy wagons, will amount to four-tenths of its total revenue.”
On average since 2001, the Global War on Terrorism
has cost American households more than $8,500 (www.costofwar.com). We live in a time when many people have lost, or stand to lose, their homes due to unemployment or underemployment. Most small businesses and professional practices have felt the squeeze, reporting drops in income of 30% or more. I (Dr. Sase) have a friend and neighbor who earns her living from real-estate sales. She reports a drop in her income of 80%. Homeowner equity has been stripped bare in many parts of the country. Home values have plummeted by half during the past few years, leaving many homeowners with negative equity and little to no savings. With revenues earned from goods sold to U.S. businesses and consumers, China and other major trading partners have helped to finance our Global War by purchasing much of the new U.S. federal debt over the past eight years. Between 2001 and 2008, our National Debt almost doubled, increasing by $4.3 Trillion (Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.gov). As of September 2009, we owed our three largest creditors, the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, $1.8 Trillion of our current $12.4 Trillion total debt. (”Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities,” U.S. Treasury Department, 2008, and U.S. National Debt Clock, www.brillig.com/debt_clock, 11 February 2010).
The 2010 Federal Budget passed by Congress provides for estimated Total Expenditures of $3.552 trillion (a less than 1% increase over the $3.518 trillion of 2009) against Total Revenue of $2.381 trillion. This leaves a Deficit of $1.171 trillion, to be covered by borrowing and bake sales. Thus, the National Debt is raised to $14.1 trillion.
Let us put our defense spending into a historical perspective. During the Second World War, defense spending approached 40%, with peak spending of 37.8% in 1944. Though this spending fell during the postwar years, it rose once again in 1951 during the Korean conflict and remained at a level of more than 40% throughout the following two decades of the Cold War until 1970, when it began to recede as the War in Vietnam came to a close. By 1974, defense spending had dropped below 30%. It fluctuated in the range of 20% to 30% through 1993. After the close of the First Iraq War in 1994, defense spending fell and remained in the 10% to 20% range until the present. In 2004, as the Global War on Terrorism escalated, defense spending reached a decade high of 19.9% before declining once again. From 2007 through 2009, spending hovered at 16.9%. In the 2010 Budget, we expect defense spending to decline slightly to 16.7% (“Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government,” www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy06/pdf/hist.pdf).
In his final words of wisdom in “The Art of War,” Sun Tzu tells us, “A wise general makes a point of foraging on the enemy. One cartload of the enemy’s provisions is equivalent to twenty of one’s own, and likewise a single picul [about 133 pounds] of his provender is equivalent to twenty from one’s own store.”
Foraging presents a great strategy when there are ample provisions to forage. However, Afghanistan has very little. “Encyclopedia of the Nations,” an online source of information about 193 countries, the United Nations, and world leaders, states, “In 1996, a report published by the United Nations ranked Afghanistan as the third poorest country in the world. Very few Afghans have access to drinkable water, health care, or education. In Kabul, safe drinking water is enjoyed by only one out of every eight families because the reservoirs have been polluted by the waste accumulated through war. Of all infant deaths, 42% are related to diarrhea and dehydration, which are caused by unsafe drinking water and unclean conditions” (www.nationsencyclopedia.com. 2010).

Sun Tzu’s Continued Relevance
Sun Tzu was a wise general and philosopher who understood that a great commander engages in battle only when no other alternative presents itself. Though he spoke of chariots instead of tanks and Humvees, the lessons that he learned and has shared in “The Art of War” continue to ring true. In this column, we have considered most of the economic points of Sun Tzu’s work. His book of essays holds many more philosophical thoughts that continue to speak to us today. However, if we limit our assessment of the Global War on Terrorism only to these economic criteria, what grade would Master Sun give our nation in the year 2010? In closing, we encourage all attorneys, whether actively practicing law or serving in Congress, to take the time to revisit this classic work that has maintained its relevance for more than two millennia. Given historical records, we assume that our military leaders have studied these tracts. However, perhaps the civilian members of Congress as well as the rest of us should take a look, take to heart, and reflect on the words that Master Sun wrote so long ago.

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Dr. John F. Sase of SASE Associates, Economic Consulting and Research, earned his MBA at the University of Detroit and his Ph.D. in Economics at Wayne State University. He is a graduated of the University of Detroit Jesuit High School. Dr. Sase can be reached at (248) 569-5228 and by e-mail at drjohn@saseassociates.com.
Gerard J. Senick is a freelance writer, editor, and musician. He earned his degree in English at the University of Detroit and was a supervisory editor at Gale Research Company (now Cengage) for more than 20 years. Currently, he edits books for publication and gives seminars on writing. Mr. Senick can be reached at (313) 342-4048 and by e-mail at gary@senick-editing.com.