Berl Falbaum
What to do? How should Israel respond to Hamas’ savagery? Having military superiority, should it destroy Hamas? Should it inflict limited punishment? Should it re-occupy the Gaza Strip?
I have pondered these and related questions since the very start of this war October 7. I have debated the issues over and over again in my head. I have read as much as I can about the war. I have listened to the “talking heads” on TV. I have debated with relatives and friends.
As soon as I decide on one strategy, a voice says, “but.” Then I consider another “solution” and the voice, even louder, protests my decision and points out the weaknesses of my reasoning.
So, unlike many of the print and TV political analysts, I need to admit, as much as it pains me: I don’t know. Let’s analyze briefly various alternatives/solutions/possibilities.
Destroy Hamas. Yes, in the face of Hamas’s butchery, revenge is an understandable human reaction. Such evil should not be permitted to exist. Yet, in the face of incomprehensible savagery, President Biden warned Israelis not to be consumed by anger.
Eliminate Hamas? At what cost?
First, there would be an extraordinary loss of lives for both Gazans and Israelis, and Gazan civilians, women and children, would probably pay the highest price in the kind of military action that would be required. The toll on Israeli soldiers would be heavy as well.
Politically, the inevitable civilian deaths would foment vehement condemnation around the world, making Israel the pariah and creating sympathy for Hamas.
Also, in the world of politics, Arab countries that have peace treaties with Israel — like the Abraham Accords — might void the pacts. Talks with Saudi Arabia on a potential peace agreement with Israel, which have been underway, could collapse. These political setbacks would strengthen Iran and Hezbollah, bitter enemies of Israel, posing serious future threats to the Jewish state.
As New York Times Columnist Thomas L. Friedman has written: Terrorist organizations are impossible to eliminate because they “have an endless supply of humiliated young men many of whom have never been in a job, power or a romantic relationship: a lethal combination that makes them easy to mobilize for mayhem.”
He continues that they can be “diminished, delegitimized and decapitated” but that requires “patience, precision, lots of allies and alternatives that have legitimacy within the societies from which these young men emerge.”
Yes, the first instinct, particularly for Israelis, is to destroy the terrorist organization. The blood stains on the pavement and the hostages being held at this writing tell them that is the right — the only — answer.
But…
A limited punishment.
What does “limited” mean? I hear many calling for “restraint.” Killing just its leadership or simply its infrastructure? How much of the Hamas organization would have to be decimated?
Hamas, of course, would begin rebuilding immediately so Israel would have to keep a military force in Gaza to assure that Hamas does not restore its military and prepare to launch another attack.
There is no guarantee that a monitoring force could be effective given miles of underground tunnels that Hamas has in place. It could easily hide its restoration efforts.
But…
Re-occupy Gaza. Israel occupied Gaza from 1967 after its victory in the Six-Day War until 2005 when it voluntarily left Gaza giving Hamas a chance to create a stable economy and improve the lives of Gazans. To the distress of Gazans, Hamas failed because it used its financial resources through the years to build a military force designed to destroy Israel.
A re-occupation would seriously reduce military manpower that might be needed in the north where Hezbollah and Iran are saber rattling, posing serious threats.
For the war with Hamas, Israel called up 360,000 reservists, which is a huge burden on Israel’s economy. Re-occupying Gaza and not returning soldiers to civilian life after the war could cause a massive blow to the country’s financial infrastructure.
Then there is the reaction of Gazans to a new occupation. Civilians never welcome occupiers. Israeli soldiers would operate in a hostile environment and face constant dangers from snipers, booby traps and other clandestine attacks. Waking up daily to news of constant deaths of Israeli soldiers would demoralize Israelis.
As Friedman notes, re-occupation could turn into a long-term moral and military strategic crisis.
All the contingencies cannot be properly or comprehensively analyzed in an 800-word column. The issues are extremely complex, and none assure success. (What’s more we are not privy to all the highly complicated and enormous military and political concerns that need to be addressed.)
I don’t know the answer to the crisis, as I indicated, but I do know that whatever Israel does, it will be subject to scorching worldwide criticism and endless second-guessing.
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Berl Falbaum is a veteran political columnist and the author of 12 books.
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