Check your underwear to predict economy

Paging Babson & Roubini. That's not a law firm monitoring police scanners for updates on a four-car pileup on the expressway, but economists Roger Babson and Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the two greatest financial catastrophes of the last 100 years. Playing Chicken Little with the correct information, Babson saw the October 1929 Wall Street crash coming, and Roubini told everyone in 2006 who would listen -- no one in power did -- that the U.S. economy was heading for flame-out. Today some prophesize doom, some say happy days are here again and others rely on the unassailable truth that even a broken clock is accurate twice a day. Maybe John Kenneth Galbraith had it right when he said, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." We'll dispense with reading the entrails of housing starts, the labor market, interest rates and currency supplies to look at other bellwethers telling us were the economy is heading. 1. Men's underpants. Arthur Greenspan once said declining men's underwear sales means "a prescient, forward impression that here comes trouble." You've already crafted your own punch line to Greenspan's unfortunate quote, so we'll move on. A reporter asking a clerk in the men's section at a Macy's on Tuesday about the sale of briefs and boxers, and how the numbers stacked up over last year, got only one response. The clerk picked up a phone below the counter and said, "Security?" 2. Sonny "Junior" Giorgio. In Chicago, during an interrogation of the alleged Cosa Nostra don -- arrested for conspiracy and hijacking -- Giorgio told investigators the price for federal judges had remained steady over the past quarter. 3. High heels. At the depths of the economic crisis in 2009, the median height of high heels was 7 inches, according to Portfolio.com. Two years later that figure had dropped 5 inches. Meaning women couldn't afford the bimonthly visit to the podiatrist. But others took the heel indicator to mean the economy was strapping on its dancing shoes. Researchers at IBM analyzed data from social media sites to find that flat shoes and kitten heels are hot, meaning, said IBM analyst Trevor Davis, that the proliferation of do-what-you-will-to-me shoes means buyers are looking for "fantasy and escape" from bad times. Lower shoes, brighter times ahead. Which begs the question: Who comes up with names like "kitten heels"? 4. Hemlines. George Taylor, a professor at the Wharton School, noted that during the Roaring '20s women's hemlines went north dramatically and plunged during the 1930s Depression. Taylor deduced women wanted to flaunt pricey silk stockings while Roaring and hide their bare legs when Depressed. But a fashion clue these days is short skirts and bare legs. No word from Professor Taylor. However, women's fashion taste must be analyzed because, referring to our first indicator, most men wouldn't even have underwear if their wives didn't buy it for them. 5. Newt Gingrich. As he staggered around amusement parks, zoos and diners in several southern states desperate for someone who would listen to him, Newt was finally convinced his next stop was a quiet room for an intense evaluation. While bowing out, he put some hurt into the political seagull class that must now move on after advising, polling, event planning and applying the permafrost gun to Callista's hair. With just Ron Paul remaining -- and Paul is advised by people only he can see and hear -- the economy might slow when political geniuses return to creating infomercials for food processors. 6. Seagulls. If you've noticed flocks of seagulls hanging out in parking lots with the occasional flap over to dumpster dive, this means the economy is on the upswing. Forbes recently noted the growing size of restaurant garbage piles means people are eating out more, since restaurants throw away more in preparation in fat times than in lean. Of course, seagulls in parking lots might just mean storms are brewing out at sea. But you can impress your dimmer companions by either predicting the weather or the economy. 7. Alligators. In Cut Off, La., the 60,000 residents at Savoie's Alligator Farm are breathing a bit easier as they bask in the mud or slither in the creek for a dip. Seems there's less demand for their hides. The gator farmers are suffering because Gucci, Vuitton and Versace haven't made the trek for skins to Cut Off (as if!) lately. Meaning the wealthy are settling for stingray, ostrich, python, eel and lizard for their shoes and handbags. 8. The one-eyed car. Martin Melkonian, a professor of economics at Hofstra University, says there is merit in counting the number of cars sporting only one headlight at night. When those numbers increase, more people are going broke and putting off installation of a new light. "At least in the neighborhoods I'm driving, I'm seeing more one-light cars," Melkonian said this week. The professor said he'd ask his wife about more "quirky" indicators. "She's good at that kind of thing." It didn't seem appropriate to ask if Mrs. Melkonian bought his underwear. Published: Thu, May 17, 2012