By Monte M. Korn
Some information for this column is taken from an article titled “Democrats Face Pivotal Test in Midwest” written by Naftali Bendavid that appeared in the Wall Street Journal on Oct. 7, 2010.
The angry Midwest voters who could be counted on to vote the straight Democratic ticket are no longer a shoo-in for the Democrats.
The Midwest is increasingly looking like a troubled region for the Democrats, a place where the battle for the House and Senate seats could readily be lost, it the seats haven’t been lost already.
Many Democratic voters are so angry at the loss of jobs that has hit the electorate that they are either not going to the polls to vote, or are going to vote a straight Republican ticket. Still, when they get into the voting booth, they might change their minds a dozen times and then go back and vote the straight Democratic ticket.
Gary Peters, who ran strong in Oakland County in the last election, now finds himself fighting for his political life. Even though he ardently supported the auto bailout, he finds himself in a tough political battle with his opponent, Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski.
In a debate last week, Rocky called it “despicable” that shareholders were hurt while unions were protected.
“You don’t know what you’re talking about,” Peters shouted, defending the bailout.
Rocky Raczkowski kept pounding away, “We have felt the economic pinch more than any other region and we don’t care if we are represented by Democrats or Republicans. We just want to be represented.”
Gary Peters argued that he is a pragmatist who reflects the districts moderate outlook. His constituents support “folks who look at what works in practical terms.”
Democrats are running into trouble in a cluster of states around Lake Michigan, plus Pennsylvania, which is democratically similar. Unlike other parts of the U.S. more closely identified with parties, the Midwest has emerged as a true swing area. And the Democratic tide that rolled in there during the past two elections looks set to roll back out.
In Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, as many as 21 Democratic House seats are in play, plus four Senate seats.
Retirement of House Democrats, including Reps. Bart Stupak of Michigan and David Obey of Wisconsin, could add to the Democratic party’s woes, since open seats are generally much easier to capture.
In the Senate, Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.) is trailing in the polls. For years Feingold has locked in Wisconsin’s Senate seat and though the political pundits believe Feingold may lose his Senate seat in the tough election coming up because he is trailing in the polls, Feingold’s integrity has always been respected by the Wisconsin voters and when they place the “x” in the voting booth, it’s quite likely his constituents will continue to give Feingold their support although the electorate is madder than hell with so many workers out of work and their future employment looking from dim to impossible.
Women votes are 10 points more apt than me to be Democrats, but the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll of generic congressional candidates had women voters only narrowly breaking for the Democrats, 47% to 44%. So the president is targeting women key members of the coalition two years ago who are straying.
Speaking to women business leaders, the President recently tried to establish the feminist bona fides.
“I’m thrilled to be here tonight with some of the most brilliant, most accomplished, most influential women in this county. As Michelle Obama’s husband, I feel very much at home.”
During his speech, the Presidential seal fell off. The President joked, “All of you know who I am.” But the White house worries some female voters may have forgotten. And the president needs those women in order to hold the House and the Senate. It’s one of the reasons why you hear the President talk so much about education on the stump.
The steady loss of manufacturing jobs has long weakened the Midwest economy. While manufacturing has been recovering through most of this year, the unemployment rate in many Midwestern states remains higher than in much of the nation.
Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana, all had unemployment rates above 10% in August, compared with 9.6% for the nation.
Republicans charge that Democrats didn’t do enough to help struggling local economies. “People wanted the Democrats to make the economy the number one priority, and the public doesn’t feel like they did,” said Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) who is helping organize Republican campaigns in the Midwest. “The common-sense folks in the Midwest are saying ‘It’s enough.’”
Democratic candidates are trying to turn the tables by accusing Republicans of promoting job outsourcing and unfair trade, resonant issues in the Rust Belt. Democrats believe they can stem the GOP tide on Nov. 2, if they cut their Midwest losses, but also acknowledge the challenge.
“We picked up lots of seats in this region in 2006 and 2008, and a lot of those were in swing districts,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.), head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
“It’s not surprising that there would be a concentration of competitive races in that region.”
But as the troubled voters of Michigan walk into the voting booth this November they will be voting their pocketbooks. The unemployed for a year or more may be so depressed that they won’t even go to the polls.
The war in Afghanistan may also have its effect on the election with many voters depressed on the trillions of dollars being spent on the war and the thousands of young men and women being killed or wounded in a war that seems endless and futile.
So it’s a toss-up whether the President will get the majority he seeks in the House and Senate to put through the programs needed to stave off a depression similar to the nose-dive in the economy that Franklin Delano Roosevelt faced in the depression of 1932.
Monte M. Korn is an attorney practicing law in West Bloomfield, has been a member of the State Bar of Michigan since 1942, and is a member of the Probate and Elder Law Sections of the State Bar.
Monte Korn is the talk show host of “Open Line with Monte Korn” on radio station WNZK am690 every morning at 11 a.m. He can be reached at (248) 933-4334.
The material in the above article is the research of Monte M. Korn. The Detroit, Oakland County, and Macomb County Legal Newspapers have no responsibility therein.
