By Berl Falbaum
If you are already down in the dumps because of all the bad news, I urge you not to read this column. Remember I warned you.
In case you missed it, the entire world — some 198 countries — are meeting as you are reading this column to work toward keeping the planet habitable for human beings and the animal kingdom.
They started on November 10 in a conference known as COP30 (the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), in Belém, the capital in the state or Pará in northern Brazil, and the gateway to the Amazon rainforest. The conference will close November 21.
(The U.S., the world’s second worst carbon emitter behind China, has not sent any “high level” officials to the conference.)
What can we expect them to achieve? The short answer: Given the history of previous COP meetings, not much, if anything.
There have been 29 COP meetings and the result: Nothing, zilch, nada, zero, zip, gornischt (Yiddish). Actually, things got worse after each meeting.
For instance: Use of coal and natural gas is growing — a huge no-no; forests, which absorb CO2, are being destroyed; the last 10 years have been the hottest on record; and overall CO2 emissions are up.
There is no reason to expect a more positive result from COP30. The political courage and the massive funds that would be required, simply do not exist.
Let us put aside more than a dozen serious environmental issues as well as policies that would be required to solve the problems and just focus on the goal of cooling the Earth.
The ballgame is over. The verdict is in as it has been for some time. The bottom line: The planet can’t be cooled; it is too late and even the most ardent and passionate environmentalists have thrown in the towel, even though they have not publicly acknowledged this fact.
What am I talking about? I’ll explain.
The temperature on the Earth has increased 1.1° Celsius (just a bit over 1.8° Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era generally defined as the mid-1800s.
The goal now embraced by everyone is to keep the temperature from rising above 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit).
But wait. If we are experiencing raging fires, melting glaciers, horrendous storms, rising seas, dying coral reefs, devastating floods, disruption of food systems, displaced communities and all the other calamities as never before at a 1.1° Celsius temperature increase, then 1.5° Celsius surely must be worse.
And therein lies the sad tale. The obvious goal should be to try and lower the temperature to less than 1° Celsius. But all the powers-to-be know that’s not possible, thus they have settled on the 1.5° Celsius objective, first defined at COP21 in 2015.
Think about that: we want to accept a temperature that is 0.4 higher than what we have now, knowing full well the consequences we face with just a 0.1-degree increase.
I don’t know why the experts have portrayed 1.5° Celsius as a desirable goal, but never — never — spell out what that means. Perhaps they don’t want to create panic. Read or listen to any story on this issue, and you will not encounter an explanation of the disastrous effects caused by a temperature increase to 1.5° Celsius. Every major speaker at the conference has urged delegates to work toward the 1.5° Celsius objective.
Addressing the COP30 delegates, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, who touts the 1.5° Celsius goal, despite acknowledging the following.
“Every fraction of a degree (emphasis supplied) means more hunger, displacement, and loss — especially for those least responsible. It could push ecosystems past irreversible tipping points, expose billions to unlivable conditions, and amplify threats to peace and security.”
Failure to contain global heating amounts to “moral failure and deadly negligence,” he charged.
Each year that is warmer, he said, “will hammer economies, deepen inequalities and impact developing countries hardest — even though they did least to cause it.
“After decades of denial and delay, science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5° C limit — starting at the latest in the early 2030s — is inevitable.
“We need a fundamental paradigm shift to limit this overshoot’s magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down. Even a temporary overshoot will unleash far greater destruction and costs for every nation.”
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Chief Celeste Saulo said that greenhouse gas emissions are now at their highest level in 800,000 years.
“From January to August this year, the Earth’s average temperature was about 1.42° C above pre-industrial levels, with oceans also reaching record highs, which is inflicting lasting damage on marine ecosystems and economies,” she said.
“This unprecedented streak of high temperatures, combined with last year’s record increase in greenhouse gas levels, makes it clear that it will be virtually impossible to limit global warming to 1.5° C in the next few years without temporarily overshooting this target,” said Saulo.
Providing some hope, she said that science still shows it is possible to bring temperatures back below that threshold by the end of the century. Note: “by the end of the century.” Perhaps she is right about the science but the politics and needed funds are impossible roadblocks to overcome. Even if she is right, consider the damage that will be suffered in the next 74 years.
The Secretary-General said the 1.5° C limit remains “a red line for humanity”, calling for rapid emissions cuts, an accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels, and stronger protection of forests and oceans.
If you ignored the warning above not to read this column because it contains nothing but bad news, you surely want to stop now.
Many scientists believe not only is cooling impossible, but keeping temperatures below 1.5° Celsius is highly problematic.
The UN Environment Programme Emissions Gap (UNEP) reported two days before COP30 opened that 1.5° Celsius will be exceeded before 2035, just 10 years away.
“Despite all the warnings, the world has continued to emit greenhouse gasses at record levels, so this conclusion wasn’t unexpected,” said Martin Krause, director of UNEP’s Climate Change Division. “But it should be a wakeup call to everyone. Climate change is real, it’s happening and unless we do something about it soon, the consequences will be severe.”
Okay, if you are reading this sentence, you obviously ignored the above warnings, but don’t let your children or grandchildren read this column.
————————
Berl Falbaum is a veteran journalist and author of 12 books.
If you are already down in the dumps because of all the bad news, I urge you not to read this column. Remember I warned you.
In case you missed it, the entire world — some 198 countries — are meeting as you are reading this column to work toward keeping the planet habitable for human beings and the animal kingdom.
They started on November 10 in a conference known as COP30 (the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), in Belém, the capital in the state or Pará in northern Brazil, and the gateway to the Amazon rainforest. The conference will close November 21.
(The U.S., the world’s second worst carbon emitter behind China, has not sent any “high level” officials to the conference.)
What can we expect them to achieve? The short answer: Given the history of previous COP meetings, not much, if anything.
There have been 29 COP meetings and the result: Nothing, zilch, nada, zero, zip, gornischt (Yiddish). Actually, things got worse after each meeting.
For instance: Use of coal and natural gas is growing — a huge no-no; forests, which absorb CO2, are being destroyed; the last 10 years have been the hottest on record; and overall CO2 emissions are up.
There is no reason to expect a more positive result from COP30. The political courage and the massive funds that would be required, simply do not exist.
Let us put aside more than a dozen serious environmental issues as well as policies that would be required to solve the problems and just focus on the goal of cooling the Earth.
The ballgame is over. The verdict is in as it has been for some time. The bottom line: The planet can’t be cooled; it is too late and even the most ardent and passionate environmentalists have thrown in the towel, even though they have not publicly acknowledged this fact.
What am I talking about? I’ll explain.
The temperature on the Earth has increased 1.1° Celsius (just a bit over 1.8° Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era generally defined as the mid-1800s.
The goal now embraced by everyone is to keep the temperature from rising above 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit).
But wait. If we are experiencing raging fires, melting glaciers, horrendous storms, rising seas, dying coral reefs, devastating floods, disruption of food systems, displaced communities and all the other calamities as never before at a 1.1° Celsius temperature increase, then 1.5° Celsius surely must be worse.
And therein lies the sad tale. The obvious goal should be to try and lower the temperature to less than 1° Celsius. But all the powers-to-be know that’s not possible, thus they have settled on the 1.5° Celsius objective, first defined at COP21 in 2015.
Think about that: we want to accept a temperature that is 0.4 higher than what we have now, knowing full well the consequences we face with just a 0.1-degree increase.
I don’t know why the experts have portrayed 1.5° Celsius as a desirable goal, but never — never — spell out what that means. Perhaps they don’t want to create panic. Read or listen to any story on this issue, and you will not encounter an explanation of the disastrous effects caused by a temperature increase to 1.5° Celsius. Every major speaker at the conference has urged delegates to work toward the 1.5° Celsius objective.
Addressing the COP30 delegates, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, who touts the 1.5° Celsius goal, despite acknowledging the following.
“Every fraction of a degree (emphasis supplied) means more hunger, displacement, and loss — especially for those least responsible. It could push ecosystems past irreversible tipping points, expose billions to unlivable conditions, and amplify threats to peace and security.”
Failure to contain global heating amounts to “moral failure and deadly negligence,” he charged.
Each year that is warmer, he said, “will hammer economies, deepen inequalities and impact developing countries hardest — even though they did least to cause it.
“After decades of denial and delay, science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5° C limit — starting at the latest in the early 2030s — is inevitable.
“We need a fundamental paradigm shift to limit this overshoot’s magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down. Even a temporary overshoot will unleash far greater destruction and costs for every nation.”
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Chief Celeste Saulo said that greenhouse gas emissions are now at their highest level in 800,000 years.
“From January to August this year, the Earth’s average temperature was about 1.42° C above pre-industrial levels, with oceans also reaching record highs, which is inflicting lasting damage on marine ecosystems and economies,” she said.
“This unprecedented streak of high temperatures, combined with last year’s record increase in greenhouse gas levels, makes it clear that it will be virtually impossible to limit global warming to 1.5° C in the next few years without temporarily overshooting this target,” said Saulo.
Providing some hope, she said that science still shows it is possible to bring temperatures back below that threshold by the end of the century. Note: “by the end of the century.” Perhaps she is right about the science but the politics and needed funds are impossible roadblocks to overcome. Even if she is right, consider the damage that will be suffered in the next 74 years.
The Secretary-General said the 1.5° C limit remains “a red line for humanity”, calling for rapid emissions cuts, an accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels, and stronger protection of forests and oceans.
If you ignored the warning above not to read this column because it contains nothing but bad news, you surely want to stop now.
Many scientists believe not only is cooling impossible, but keeping temperatures below 1.5° Celsius is highly problematic.
The UN Environment Programme Emissions Gap (UNEP) reported two days before COP30 opened that 1.5° Celsius will be exceeded before 2035, just 10 years away.
“Despite all the warnings, the world has continued to emit greenhouse gasses at record levels, so this conclusion wasn’t unexpected,” said Martin Krause, director of UNEP’s Climate Change Division. “But it should be a wakeup call to everyone. Climate change is real, it’s happening and unless we do something about it soon, the consequences will be severe.”
Okay, if you are reading this sentence, you obviously ignored the above warnings, but don’t let your children or grandchildren read this column.
————————
Berl Falbaum is a veteran journalist and author of 12 books.
